A Keybridge macroeconomic modeling analysis quantifies the long-term impact on the U.S. economy associated with the electrification of the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet.
In April 2010, Keybridge Research and the University of Maryland Interindustry Forecasting Project (Inforum) released the results of its study of the long-term economic impacts of electrifying the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. Commissioned by the Electrification Coalition (EC), a group of business leaders representing the entire value chain of an electrified transportation sector, the study utilizes the Inforum LIFT model of the U.S. economy to estimate the macroeconomic and fiscal impacts associated with implementing the EC's Electrification Roadmap.
The study finds that, if implemented today, the Electrification Coalition policy package would result in a wide range of beneficial impacts to the U.S. economy between now and 2030. With reduced oil intensity, household income and employment will be higher and the U.S. trade deficit will be smaller. After including outlays for subsidies and other measures to implement these policies, the U.S. federal budget balance is expected to improve due to increased economic activity and income levels. Probably the single most important conclusion of the study is that by substantially reducing America’s oil dependence, the economy will be much better prepared to withstand a future oil shock such as those that contributed to recessions in 1973–74, 1980–81, 1991, 2000–01 and 2007–09. That is, the policy package can be thought of as a self-financing insurance policy that will make the economy more robust in good times and more resilient when subjected to energy shocks.