Keybridge U.S. Economic Momentum Monitor: August 2011
Index indicates subpar growth for U.S. in the near term, but double-dip recession remains unlikely.
The Keybridge Research U.S. Economic Momentum Monitor increased from -6.7 (revised) in July to 0.0 in August. Investment led all sectors for the fifth straight month, and Housing also made a positive contribution. These bright spots were offset by negative contributions from Business Activity and Employment, while the Consumer sector was neutral.
Despite a market sell off this week due to negative news—most notably, the large downward revisions in U.S. GDP for Q1 and Q2, an unimpressive last-minute debt ceiling compromise, and rising fears of a Euro-Periphery crisis, the Momentum Monitor’s six-month moving average is now at +14.4, suggesting that while the U.S. can expect subpar growth over the next 3-6 months, a double-dip recession remains unlikely.
Note: Past editions of the U.S. Economic Momentum Monitor are published for illustrative purposes only. For more information on regular subscriptions, please contact Keybridge Research.
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